The relevance of using foresight methods in modern conditions of economic systems development

The modernization of the economy within the existing conditions requires innovative approaches that allow us to identify successful areas of activity of enterprises, strategic directions for the development of science and technology. Foresight research has this ability. This area is a new technology through which the expected changes in the future are discussed, by combining the efforts of all participants in the process, anticipating changes in the selected segment, highlighting phenomena and processes that will become priorities in the future. In order to strengthen its position in world markets, it is necessary to adequately and timely determine the priorities of scientific, technical and innovative development. In the context of increased global competition, the state must maintain and develop its competitive advantages, primarily through the development and market launch of innovative goods and services, and the implementation of a comprehensive innovation policy. To identify the most promising developments, Foresight projects are needed, based on the results of which priorities are selected, large-scale research programs are formed aimed at developing key technologies and creating critically important products. Without a well-founded foresight of the development of the world market and scientifically sound plans for the development of foreign economic activity, it is impossible to achieve consensus between the state, business and society. Foresight methodology pays special attention to ensuring a coordinated vision of the future by the main stakeholders in the most important strategic areas of development. Foresight differs from other future research technologies in that it allows for a deeper understanding of the nature of change, challenges and opportunities. Currently, various foresight methods have become more and more actively applied in practice, since they most effectively help to understand which areas of science, technology, economics and society will bring the greatest economic and social benefits [1,2].

Modern foresight is used as a systemic tool for influencing the formation of the future, allowing for possible changes in all spheres of public activity: science and technology, economics, social, public relations, culture. This tool has been spreading especially intensively in the European Union since March 2000, when the Lisbon Strategy was adopted, which proposed that all EU countries use this innovative tool more widely. Currently, various programs are being developed in Europe using foresight methods, not only by governments, research centers, universities, but also by non-governmental organizations. It is here that foresight is applied in the field of culture, as well as regional development. The standard euroforsite is a study on one narrowly taken topic. All foresights are performed according to the recommended methods, therefore they are structurally similar. In Japan, a large number of foresights are conducted at different levels, but a clear hierarchy is maintained: at the government level, they deal with a common vision, ministries use macro-level foresights, followed by foresights of groups of companies and specific firms. The Delphi method is used in Japan, Germany and a number of other countries. The method involves the selection of highly qualified experts, the creation of expert panels in certain areas of science and technology; the development of a list of topics – potential scientific and technological achievements expected in the long term, up to 25-30 years, including fundamental and applied research, innovative goods and services created on the basis of new technologies [3]. Experts assess the relevance of each topic for the development of the economy, society, the availability of resources and potential barriers to practical implementation. The results of the study include summary assessments on each topic, as well as analytical reviews on the most important areas of science and technology.

Foresight is based on the fact that the implementation of the "desired" scenario of the onset of the future largely depends on the actions taken today, therefore, the choice of options is accompanied by the development of measures that ensure the optimal direction of innovative development. Foresight projects are focused not only on gaining new knowledge in the form of reports, a set of scenarios, and recommendations. An important result is the development of informal relationships between their participants, the creation of a unified understanding of the situation. In a number of projects, the formation of horizontal networks, platforms within which scientists and businessmen, university professors and officials, specialists in related fields can systematically discuss common problems is considered as one of the main effects. Foresight is created as a systematic process that must be carefully planned and organized [4, 5].

The set of approaches used in Foresight projects is constantly expanding and today covers dozens of methods - both qualitative: interviews, literature reviews, morphological analysis, "correspondence trees", scenarios, role–playing games, etc.) and quantitative: analysis of mutual influence, extrapolation, modeling, analysis and prediction of method indicators. A number of methods are synthetic in nature, including the Delphi method, roadmap, critical technologies, as well as multi-criteria analysis, patent analysis, game modeling. The set of methods used in a particular project can be selected taking into account many factors: time and resource constraints, the availability of a sufficient number of highly qualified experts, access to information sources [6]. Nevertheless, the key condition for the success of the project is the use of methods that ensure the effective work of the experts involved.

The main methods of Foresight include: the method of scenario development; the method of drawing up road maps; the method of critical technologies; Delphi survey; the method of collective expertise. So, when using the scenario development method, SWOT analysis is used. The scenario development method is usually aimed at developing a strategy and researching the problem. 2 groups of participants can be involved in such projects: internal (broad specialists); external (narrow experts). Initially, the main trends are identified, which are combined into a cluster. Clusters are evaluated in focus groups, on the basis of which they develop guidelines for the future. The method of drawing up roadmaps was originally developed and tested in the field of technological development of enterprises. Roadmaps establish causal and temporal links between possible goals, thereby defining the steps to achieve the goals. The peculiarity of roadmaps compared to other methods is that the results are presented graphically. Roadmaps are often used in an industry context, in this case, in the long term, roadmaps allow enterprises to coordinate investments in the innovation sector and coordinate the exchange of development results. This leads to the development of common technological standards and risk sharing between enterprises. The roadmap is an official document that reflects possible ways of developing economic systems in the future, on the basis of which long-term priorities are formed in various industries and spheres, in politics and in society. They are formed for each of the key areas of development described in scientific forecasts and, as a rule, are of a product nature – the result of the implementation of the roadmap should be competitive products [7].

The problem of choosing an adequate set of approaches for use in a particular project does not have an unambiguous solution. Nevertheless, there are basic principles for forming combinations of methods. The so-called "foresight triangle" is widely known, at the vertices of which are the key factors that ensure the success of working with experts: creativity, extraction of expert knowledge and interaction. The location of foresight methods inside a triangle corresponds to their "attraction" to one or another of its corners. Using any of the methods has its strengths and weaknesses. For example, brainstorming promotes the creativity of experts, but is not necessarily accompanied by their effective interaction, and expert seminars, ensuring the interaction of specialists, may not lead to the identification of important aspects reflecting the prospects for the development of individual technological areas. The idea of the triangle was to use in any foresight project a combination of methods that ensure the successful implementation of all three functions corresponding to its vertices. The system of foresight methods has been constantly developing and improving, and over the past ten years there has been a lot of experience in their practical application. The effectiveness of the combined application of various qualitative and quantitative methods has been confirmed. At the same time, it became obvious that large projects dedicated to the selection of technological priorities at the national level require new approaches that ensure objective assessments based on quantitative analysis of empirical data – statistical indicators, patent statistics, bibliometric information [8].

The following main advantages of foresight research can be distinguished: discussion of expected changes in the future by consolidating the efforts of all participants in the foresight process; involves the participation of many interested segments of civil society; promotes the desire to develop consensus among representatives of society; development of long-term strategies for the development of economics, science, technology; outlines potential technological horizons; the basis for making important decisions in problematic areas and conflict situations; assesses the probability and risks of certain conditions; involvement of well-known specialists, scientists, and business leaders in the process of scientific research.

In the future, due to the advanced training of customers and the growth of their requirements, as well as the emergence of a new class of research tools - primarily based on artificial intelligence - the quality of foresight processes and results will increase significantly. This will be facilitated by increasing the openness and accessibility of international and national databases (patent, publication, commodity), intensive information exchange between countries and fundamental transformations of statistics as a branch of science towards the integration of primary data and the formation of a system of alternative indicators.

The importance of foresight research increases during periods of vital turning shifts in the structure of the national economy in connection with the global requirements of the transition to high technologies, when in a short time it is necessary to rebuild the material and technical base in relation to new challenges and threats of the global market. Foresight is becoming a successful tool for implementing overdue structural shifts in practice, ensuring a qualitatively new level of market development. Thus, it is considered advisable to train specialists in this scientific field.