Development strategy selection for Advanced Special Economic Zones (ASEZ) in the Russian Far East: a SWOT-AHP approach

1. Introduction

In 2014, Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed the concept of advanced economic development Zone, which was formally established in 2015, and then more than 22 Far East Advanced development zones were established [1]. The government has attracted the attention of domestic and foreign investors through a series of policy measures, trying to build the original region into an economic development zone suitable for production and life.

The development of the Russian Far East has unique advantages, the region has rich reserves of resources, a wide variety of oil, natural gas, coal and other resources in the world’s top reserves, but due to the economic development and imbalance in Russia, its population, economy and politics are concentrated in the west of Russia near Europe, the Far East relative to the development of the region. Problems such as a small population and underdeveloped transportation have constrained the development of the Far East. At present, the Far East has opened the door to investment from all over the world, and the government has introduced a series of preferential policies and established a special project management department in the local area.

In the long run, the Far East Advanced Development Area will encounter many problems in the development process, such as the sustainable development of infrastructure, that is, the road, water, electricity, gas, to improve the existing port throughput is not enough; The problem that local government departments have insufficient restrictions on the supervision and use of funds granted by the Russian government to investment enterprises; How to innovate the existing ways of attracting investment more effectively; How to control energy conservation and emission reduction and reduce environmental pollution while developing; How to increase the local people's confidence in the government, reduce the population outflow and so on. All these problems need to be combined with and learn from foreign policies and means for targeted research. Therefore, in view of the above problems, this paper hopes to explore a more suitable development strategy path for the future development of the advanced development area of the Russian Far East through in-depth research.

2. Methodology

The SWOT analysis theory, based on previous research and represented by the resource school, analyzes the internal resources of enterprises and combines the analysis of the external competitive environment of enterprises to form its own structured balanced system analysis system. By constructing the SWOT structure matrix, different regions can be endowed with different meanings, and thereby different strategic combinations can be formed. SWOT mainly consists of four parts: strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats. According to the concept of enterprise competitive strategy, the strategy should be based on what the enterprise "can do", that is, the strengths and weaknesses within the organization, and also on what the enterprise "may do", that is, the combination of environmental opportunities and threats, so as to determine the marketing strategy of the enterprise. The SWOT analysis theory mainly conducts a detailed analysis of the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of the research object, and arranges them in a matrix form through investigation and listing. Then, by using the idea of systematic analysis, various factors are matched in all aspects to ultimately draw a conclusion.

The AHP analysis method was first proposed by the American research expert Satty T. L. in 1971. It has been widely applied to solve complex and multi-level decision-making problems in various social fields at present. When applying this method, the key lies in how to scientifically and reasonably break down the problem layer by layer, and then analyze each small problem or key element after decomposition, analyze the logical hierarchical relationship among them, identify the goals to be achieved and the implementation guidelines in the solution process, and only then can detailed countermeasures and plans be formulated. The AHP analysis method can more easily separate diverse and complex problems, reduce the difficulty of problem handling, and provide a clearer idea for problem-solving.

In order to overcome the shortcomings of the SWOT analysis method, in the 1970s, Thomas L. Saaty, an American operations research expert, proposed the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). This method conducts a comprehensive analysis of the strategy-related influencing factors by constructing a hierarchical model, which is divided into the goal layer, the criterion layer and the plan layer, and adopts an analysis method combining qualitative and quantitative approaches. Solve complex multi-factor problems efficiently. The SWOT-AHP analysis method can conduct qualitative analysis of the four dimensions of S, W, O and T more accurately, and carry out specific quantitative analysis, achieve accurate and objective analysis of the problem, and precisely formulate the solution strategy of the problem. This analytical method can effectively improve the accuracy of strategic decisions. Therefore, in this paper, the SWOT analysis method is combined with the Analytic Hierarchy process and applied to the research on the development strategy of the advanced development zone in the Russian Far East. A relatively complete systematic framework combining qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis is established to analyze some key factors influencing the advanced development zone in the Far East (including factors of advantages, disadvantages, opportunities and threats).

Table 1 presents SWOT matrix proposed for the research, based on the existing studies. In order to ensure the authenticity and rationality of the evaluation system, it is proposed to send the preliminary development indicator system of the Russian advanced development zone to the experts in the industry by means of a questionnaire to optimize it. First of all, from the four aspects of the Strengths, Weaknesses, opportunities and threats of the development of the advanced development area in Russia, the influential factors of the advanced development area were preliminarily screened. The questionnaire was sent online to people in research fields related to the Russian economy, and 75 responses were collected over three months. In order to ensure the accuracy of the questionnaire, we sorted out the collected questionnaires and eliminated some wrong questionnaires. The remaining 68 questionnaires were valid, with an effective rate of 90.66%.

After analyzing and organizing these effective questionnaires, 14 indicators with a high percentage of votes were finally selected and used as a final evaluation criterion, that is, as shown in table 1, the development strategy of the advanced development area of the Russian Far East was taken as the overall objective of the analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) model, and the advantages, disadvantages, opportunities and challenges were taken as the decision-making objectives. Taking each specific influencing factor in SWOT analysis as the scheme level, the analytic hierarchy process model of the development of the ASEZ of the Russian Far East is established.

Table 1

SWOT matrix of Advanced Special Economic Zones of the Russian Far East

When constructing the judgment matrix, we can use the 1-9 scale method in the analytic hierarchy process to scale, and then combine the expert scoring method (see Appendix B questionnaire) to obtain the corresponding judgment matrix, specifically: Development strategy comparison matrix A, advantage comparison matrix S, disadvantage comparison matrix W, opportunity comparison matrix O, challenge comparison matrix T (following formulas 1-5).

,

(1)

,

(2)

,

(3)

,

(4)

,

(5)

3. Results and discussion

The eigenvector of the maximum eigenvalue corresponding to the judgment matrix A, S, W, O and T is the sequence of the relative importance of each factor at the same level after normalization, and their maximum eigenvalue λ max and corresponding eigenvector are calculated according to the judgment matrix listed in formulas 1-5 (tab. 2). It can be seen from the table that the CR of these five judgment matrices is less than 0.1, so they all pass the one-time test.

Table 2

Hierarchical sorting and one-time check

The results of single ranking of all levels in the same level and the weights of all factors in the previous level were used to calculate the weights of all factors in the relative target level, and consistency test was carried out (tab. 3), reflecting the importance of internal factors in each group to the strategy. The total ranking random consistency ratio CR was as follows:

, (6)

The value of CR calculated by the formula is 0.0621, which is less than 0.10, so the consistency ratio CR passes the consistency test, and the result can reflect the strength of each group of factors on the development strategy selection of the advanced development area of the Russian Far East. As can be seen from table 3, the largest weights in each group are: S4 (economic complementarty with China and other neighboring countries) = 0.0371, W2 (insufficient capital investment) = 0.2851, O3 (more cooperation opportunities in energy development) = 0.2362, T2 (low level of economic development in the Far East) = 0.0685.

Table 3

Hierarchical sorting and one-time check

The composition of the selected SWOT strategy can be expressed as the SWOT matrix (tab. 4).

Table 4

SWOT matrix

Growth strategy (based on Strenghts and Opportunities)

To accelerate the development of Advanced Special Economic Zones (ASEZs) in the Russian Far East, a growth strategy should leverage strong political and public support to ensure sustained commitment and rapid implementation. The region’s rich natural resources and economic complementarity with neighboring countries like China provide a solid foundation for deepening energy cooperation and fostering regional trade. By building open, transparent platforms supported by preferential policies and streamlined regulations, ASEZs can attract foreign direct investment and serve as hubs for Asia-Pacific integration. Developing industry-specific clusters, enhancing cross-border infrastructure, and promoting value-added processing within ASEZs will not only diversify the economy but also embed the region in regional value chains, maximizing the benefits of bilateral trade and strategic partnerships.

Diversification strategy (based on Strenghts and Threats)

To diversify the development of Advanced Special Economic Zones (ASEZs) in the Russian Far East amid external sanctions and internal challenges, the strategy should capitalize on strong political and public backing to drive investment into non-resource sectors such as manufacturing, logistics, agribusiness, and high-tech industries. Leveraging economic complementarity with China and other neighboring countries, the region can pivot toward Asian markets to reduce dependency on Western economies. Addressing the workforce shortage through targeted education programs, labor mobility incentives, and international partnerships will be key to supporting new industries. Additionally, channeling natural resource revenues into infrastructure, SME development, and innovation hubs can help elevate the region’s economic base and build long-term resilience against geopolitical and structural risks.

Turnaround strategy (based on Weaknesses and Opportunities)

To implement a successful turnaround strategy for the Advanced Special Economic Zones (ASEZs) in the Russian Far East, efforts should focus on addressing structural weaknesses – such as underinvestment and an underdeveloped financial market – by leveraging strong preferential policies and international cooperation opportunities. Building open, investor-friendly platforms with transparent governance and streamlined regulations can attract both domestic and foreign capital, while strategic partnerships in energy and trade with neighboring countries can serve as catalysts for broader economic activity. Establishing financial incentives, improving access to credit, and introducing public-private investment mechanisms will help stimulate diverse sectors and gradually strengthen the region’s financial infrastructure. This approach can transform ASEZs into dynamic, multi-sector growth engines integrated into regional value chains.

Defensive strategy (based on Weaknesses and Threats)

A defensive strategy for the development of Advanced Special Economic Zones (ASEZs) in the Russian Far East should focus on minimizing vulnerabilities by strengthening internal economic foundations and reducing exposure to external shocks. To counter underinvestment and financial market weaknesses, the strategy should prioritize domestic investment mobilization, including state-backed funds, sovereign wealth resources, and public-private partnerships, while gradually developing regional financial institutions. To mitigate the impact of sanctions and economic isolation, ASEZs should shift focus toward self-sufficiency and deepen ties with neutral or friendly regional partners. Additionally, addressing workforce shortages through targeted education, vocational training, and migration incentives is essential to support sustainable development. This strategy aims to build resilience by reinforcing core economic structures, reducing reliance on Western markets, and stabilizing the local economic environment.

Development Strategy Selection

According to figure, the triangular areas of each quadrant are calculated respectively: S_△SAO = 1/2×0.0371×0.2362 = 0.0044; S_△WAO = 1/2×0.2851×0.2362 = 0.0337; S_△WAT = 1/2×0.2851×0.0685 = 0.0098; S_△SAT = 1/2×0.0371×0.0685 = 0.0013.

Fig. Strategic choice of SWOT quadrilateral in Russia’s ASEZ

Through comparison, it is found that the area size of the above four triangles is sorted as follows: S_△WAO>S_△WAT>S_△SAO>S_△SAT. Therefore, the development strategy selection sequence of Russia's advanced development area is: WO strategy, WT strategy, SO strategy and ST strategy.

Strategy choice

SWOT analysis and AHP analytic hierarchy process are used to analyze the strategic environment of the advanced development area of the Russian Far East, and then the overall strategic conception and selection direction are proposed. According to the SWOT analysis results of the Far East advanced development area, the development strategy selection sequence of Russia's advanced development area is WO strategy, WT strategy, SO strategy and ST strategy. From the perspective of the internal and external environment of the advanced development area of the Russian Far East at this stage, the advantages of supporting the development of the advanced development area of the Russian Far East are relatively limited, and the disadvantages and threats are relatively many, it is difficult to eliminate these disadvantages in a short time. Therefore, under the background of accelerating the economic development of Russia, the advanced development area of the Russian Far East should be based on the WO strategy – the torsion strategy, that is, the use of external opportunities to overcome internal weaknesses as a breakthrough. However, according to the gradual development trend of things, the Russian Far East advanced development area should gradually develop from the tightening strategy to the expansion strategy direction, and it should go through three development stages in the specific development strategy selection. The first stage is the "disadvantage + threat" stage. In the first stage, Russia's Far East advanced development area needs to pay attention to its own weaknesses and threats, not only to actively change its own shortcomings, but also to avoid possible threats. At this stage, the main implementation strategy should focus on the strategic guarantee of funds, the limited funds should be used in the construction of the Far East advanced development zone, and the development of the financial market should be improved, through the optimization of economic structure, to enhance their overall development capacity. Of course, in order to avoid possible threats, on the one hand, it is necessary to publicize the public in the process of implementing the development of the Far East Advanced Development Zone, at the same time, strengthen cooperation with China and other neighboring countries, resist sanctions from Europe and the United States and other countries, and weaken trade competition with neighboring countries by promoting bilateral negotiations. The second stage is the "advantage + threat" stage. In this stage, the main purpose is to make use of the advantages of the Russian Far East advanced development Zone, fully tap its own potential, and at the same time, explore internal advantages, avoid external threats, achieve rapid development of the entire development zone, further increase social support for the development of the Russian Far East advanced development Zone, and accelerate the realization of cluster development. Integrate all aspects of resources in the advanced development zone of the Russian Far East. The third stage, "disadvantage + opportunity" stage. This stage is mainly to overcome the internal disadvantages, and gradually transform the internal disadvantages into advantages, and continue to integrate with the original advantages, and finally form new advantages. Therefore, from this point of view, accelerate the strategic direction of economic structural transformation and the development of financial markets. Make full use of external opportunities to achieve their own rapid development, and ultimately achieve comprehensive advantages. Through the continuous accumulation of financial capital, gradually support and maintain the rapid and stable development of the Russian Far East advanced development area.

4. Conclusion

This paper mainly analyzes the development environment of the Russian Far East advanced development area systematically, and used SWOT-AHP combined analysis methods to fully understand the development environment of the Russian Far East advanced development area. Russia's Far East Advanced development zone has a good political and legal environment in the process of development, but there are shortcomings in the economic environment. The public generally has a high degree of recognition for the construction of the Far East advanced development Zone, and the technology cannot keep up with the requirements of the development zone construction. On the whole, Russia's Far East advanced development area has good public opinion and resource advantages in China, but there are disadvantages in terms of financial support and economic environment. From the perspective of the external market, with the rapid development of the Asia-Pacific economy, the development opportunities are constantly increasing. However, the hostile attitude of Europe and the United States and Russia has brought some external threats to the development of the advanced development area of the Russian Far East. In addition, on the basis of SWOT analysis method and AHP analytic hierarchy process, this chapter also analyzes the selection of development strategies of the Far East advanced development area of Russia, and finds that the development of the Far East advanced development area of Russia should give priority to WO strategy-torsion strategy, that is, make use of external opportunities, overcome internal weaknesses, and actively promote the rapid development of the Far East advanced development area. Finally, the strategic choice of the advanced development area of the Russian Far East is analyzed and studied. In the future development of the advanced development area of the Russian Far East, different strategies should be adopted for different stages and strategic adjustment should be done according to the development requirements of different stages.