Acknowledgements for support to the Secretariat of Higher Education, Science, Technology, and Innovation (in Spanish SENESCYT), Postal Code: 1701518, Quito-Ecuador.
Disclosure statement. No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.
Historical aspects of Russian-Ecuadorian cooperation.
Diplomatic relations between the USSR and Ecuador were established on 16 June 1945, and in 1969 the countries opened embassies in Moscow and Quito [5]. During the Soviet period, bilateral relations developed smoothly. Since 2007, the bilateral relations intensified, progress has been made in cooperation between the countries. Several documents were signed touching upon the development of civil defense, emergency response, peaceful use of atomic energy, information technologies, joint projects in the energy sector, visa-free regime, and development of cooperation in the field of mass communications.
Although bilateral relations were not as active after 2017, bilateral relations between Russia and Ecuador continued to develop in some areas over the past decade, until February 2022, when unprecedented sanctions were imposed on Russia. Cooperation touched upon various areas, including foreign trade, investment projects, diplomatic contacts, relations in the development of education, science, sports and culture. Thus, Ecuador was among the three Latin American countries with which Russia recorded the most significant trade turnover. For example, in 2021, this figure was $1.9 billion, an increase of 28.8% compared to 2020. Moreover, Ecuador's exports to Russia totaled $1.4 billion at that time. In general, the share of Ecuador in the structure of Russia's foreign trade turnover with the countries of the world was noted at the level of 0.2%. In 2021, Ecuador became Russia's second-largest trade partner in the Latin American region in terms of trade turnover, overtaking Argentina. Ecuador exported mainly agricultural goods (bananas, flowers, cocoa, fish, and crustaceans) to Russia. Russian exports to Ecuador consisted of a greater extent of such goods as: oil and oil products, chemical products, metals, timber, machinery, and equipment [4].
Investment cooperation developed less actively. In general, it should be noted that even though Latin America is a strategic region for Russia, joint investments between the parties are rather underdeveloped. To a greater extent, these projects are implemented on the territory of Ecuador, including such Russian companies as Rosneft (exploring oil fields on Ecuadorian territory), Inter RAO (building the Toachi-Pilaton energy complex), AvtoVAZ (implementing the project of assembly production of VAZ cars) [2].
Significant results of cooperation between Ecuador and Russia before the period of deterioration of their relations in 2022 were achieved in the field of science and education. According to the results of 2020-2021, Ecuador ranked second after Colombia in the number of students studying in Russian universities (so, from Ecuador there were 1135 students in Russia) [3]. In 2021, the number of foreign students in general increased by 12%. Moreover, the increase was due to the introduction of distance learning programs into the practice of Russian universities. It is the online formats of education that allowed to strengthen the process of attracting foreign students to Russian universities, including those from Ecuador. According to the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation, the most popular among students are Peoples' Friendship University of Russia (PFUR), Kazan Federal University (KFU), Peter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic University (SPbPU), Lomonosov Moscow State University (M.V. Lomonosov Moscow State University), and Lomonosov Moscow State University (M.V. Lomonosov Moscow State University). Lomonosov Moscow State University (MSU) [10].
Reasons for the deterioration of cooperation between Russia and Ecuador.
In some areas of Russian-Ecuadorian relations, which have been developing quite dynamically over the past decade, there has been a decline and certain problems. First, it was affected by the closure of borders and a serious reduction in tourism across the world, including in Ecuador during the Covod-2019 pandemic. In addition to the closure of borders, the incomes of citizens, commercial companies, and public organizations were significantly reduced, which also affected the dynamics of diplomatic, investment, humanitarian, scientific and educational cooperation. However, the main factor was undoubtedly the sanctions imposed against Russia since February 2022. The anti-Russian rhetoric was supported by the Ecuadorian authorities, albeit in a rather restrained format. Even though Ecuador joined the UN resolution on Russia, the Ecuadorian authorities are trying to maintain neutrality between the US, whose influence in the country has continued to grow in recent years, and Russia, with which Ecuador is trying to maintain at least the existing volumes of trade cooperation. The suspension of bilateral relations in mid-2022 has had a negative impact on Ecuador. Banana exporters, for example, were seriously affected. In March 2022, local farmers rioted and blocked the highways linking the country's largest city Guayaquil and the neighboring provinces of Guayas, Los Rios, and El Oro due to disrupted export chains to Russia and serious losses.
Thus, a number of problems hindering a greater pace of Russian-Ecuadorian cooperation had already been outlined several years before the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in 2022. These problems were related to the growing influence of the United States in some countries of the Latin American region [9, p.153-167]; the growing role of China in Latin America and, as a consequence, the resulting toughening of competition in regional markets [8, p.30-46]; the socio-economic crisis caused by the consequences of the Covid-2019 pandemic; a series of political crises in Ecuador, which worsened in 2022 and other reasons. All the above-mentioned problems have affected Russian-Ecuadorian relations in one way or another, and it has been extremely difficult to predict their further development in conditions of extreme instability both in Ecuador itself and in the global space as a whole.
The role of the new President Noboa in the development of bilateral Russian-Ecuadorian relations.
The prospects for the revival of Russian-Ecuadorian cooperation began to emerge after a new president came to power in Ecuador - Daniel Noboa, who will hold office until 2025. Extraordinary elections were initiated in May 2023 by the then incumbent President Guillermo Lasso in order to dissolve the parliament, which was to consider the impeachment of Lasso. Daniel Noboa and his National Democratic Action party won the second round and beat rival Luisa González of the leftist Civic Revolution movement. Notably, González's party is unofficially led by Rafael Correa, who has been banned from holding elected office for 25 years, but who in the past has focused on actively developing relations with Russia and reducing US influence in the country. However, while a Luisa Gonzalez victory could be more favorable to Russia, Noboa is also not the worst option and could make a significant difference to the current situation that has plagued Russian-Ecuadorian relations over the past two years. There are a number of circumstances for this.
For example, Noboa represents a younger generation (he is 35 years old) and has become the youngest president in the history of Ecuador. A pragmatic outlook and ambition often distinguish representatives of this age, and Noboa has so far shown sufficient confidence in the serious transformation of the country. Moreover, importantly, he is a member of an influential family known not only in Ecuador, but also in other countries of the region. Thus, the president's grandfather made his fortune in banana exports, and was also the owner of coffee export companies, sugar cane processing, shipbuilding companies, as well as engaged in banking and insurance business. Noboa's father is the founder of Ecuador's largest bank and a property company. At one time, he also ran for president. The mother of the new president is also actively involved in politics and was once a member of the Ecuadorian parliament. In this regard, it is safe to assume that Daniel Noboa, who is also a well-known businessman in the country, will seriously take into account the business interests of his family when implementing his policies. To promote his own interests, Noboa is likely to develop trade and economic ties with Russia and generally pursue a balanced foreign economic policy, including the continuation of foreign trade liberalization programs.
It should be noted that Daniel Noboa has already visited Russia on a parliamentary group visit in September 2022. The meetings with the Russian side were held within the framework of the development of friendship between Russia and Ecuador. It is noteworthy that the trip was paid for by a company related to the Noboa family. Even though Noboa then condemned Russia's actions in Ukraine, he nevertheless stated that Ecuador is ready to act as a mediator in the establishment of Russian-Ukrainian dialogue. Moreover, the idea of becoming a link not only between Russia and Ukraine, but also in general between Moscow and Washington was voiced by the young president more than once.
Among the tasks announced in the election campaign of the new president, were outlined, mainly saving the Ecuadorian economy by stimulating production and employment, conducting large-scale programs to support small and medium-sized businesses, providing tax benefits for national entrepreneurs, as well as actively attracting foreign investment. In addition, Noboa attaches great importance to tightening control over drug trafficking and improving the performance of law enforcement agencies to reduce the crime rate.
Russian Ambassador to Ecuador Vladimir Sprinchan is quite optimistic about the prospects for further Russian-Ecuadorian cooperation. He expressed hope for improvement of political and diplomatic bilateral relations and stated his readiness to work with the new government of Ecuador [6].
In general, it can be expected that the new government will pursue a balanced policy towards Russia and, thus, it will be possible to return Russian-Ecuadorian relations to the level of early 2022, if not seriously improve them. Nevertheless, this will depend not only on Ecuador, but also on the Russian side. In the context of possible serious changes in the political landscape in Latin America (given the upcoming elections in Peru, Chile, and several other countries in the region, as well as the hardening of rhetoric against US hegemony by Venezuela), Russia needs to increase diplomatic and economic contacts most actively.
Prospects for the development of Russian-Ecuadorian cooperation.
Despite the difficulties faced by Russian-Ecuadorian relations since 2022, today there are sufficient prospects for their further development. First, we can talk about strengthening economic cooperation (mainly trade and investment). After the withdrawal of many Western companies from the Russian market, free niches have emerged, including in those areas in which Ecuador has specialized for quite a long time (mainly flowers and food products).
Russia remains an important economic partner for Ecuador. First of all, due to the potentially large market for Ecuadorian agricultural products (not only bananas, but also other fruits, vegetables, fish, etc.). The fact that the Ecuadorian side is interested in developing trade relations is also evidenced by the positive dynamics of trade turnover with Russia, despite the anti-Russian sanctions, many of which Ecuador still adheres to. In January-June 2022, the Russian-Ecuadorian trade turnover increased by 5.6% compared to the same period in 2021 [7]. Joint investment projects are also of interest, several of which have already been implemented or are in the process of implementation in Ecuador. First, we are talking about projects in the energy sector.
In addition, educational and scientific cooperation has traditionally been an important area of Russian-Ecuadorian relations. A number of factors (including historically developed ties between Russian and Ecuadorian universities, respectful attitude of Ecuadorians to Russian education [12], a certain base for studying the Russian language at Ecuadorian sites, efforts of the Russian side to attract students from abroad, including from Latin American countries, relatively low cost of educational programs with high quality of education, etc.) can significantly expand this area of cooperation between Russia and Ecuador. In addition to the factors listed above, the choice of education in Russia will be facilitated by an increase in scholarship programs for foreign students, including those provided through the Federal Agency for CIS Affairs, Compatriots Living Abroad and International Humanitarian Cooperation (Rossotrudnichestvo). Russia is now interested in increasing the number of foreign students, and by 2024 the President of the country has instructed to double the number of students from abroad (this figure should be at least 600 thousand people). As of January 2023, this figure was just over 400 thousand citizens [1]. Nevertheless, in conditions when Russia has withdrawn from the Bologna system, it is difficult to give forecasts on the pace of development of Russian-Ecuadorian relations in the sphere of higher education.
A positive moment in the development of scientific and educational Russian-Ecuadorian contacts can certainly be called the formation of a special Consortium by Russia and several Latin American countries, the first meeting of which was held on 24 November 2022. The Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation, as well as relevant institutions of Latin American countries, including Ecuador, will be responsible for the activities of such a consortium [11].
Conclusion.
Despite the sufficient potential for its development, Russian-Ecuadorian relations have not been developing actively enough to date. This has been influenced by several problems, including political, economic, social, logistical and several others. Nevertheless, with the new President Daniel Noboa coming to power in Ecuador, we can assume a positive scenario for the further development of bilateral relations, mainly in two key areas: economic cooperation as a key area of Russian-Ecuadorian relations, as well as in scientific and educational projects, in which the parties have gained sufficient experience to date. The absence of harsh anti-Russian rhetoric by the new president of Ecuador, the presence of certain business interests of the Noboa family, as well as the generally high probability of a strengthening of the left turn in the Latin American region may have a positive impact on the development of Russian-Ecuadorian cooperation in the near future.
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